Any patience has the limit, and, it seems, the patience of Iran after all has burst. The spiritual leader of Iran Ali Khamenei has given the order immediately to start uranium enrichment. It can be apprehended as violation of the nuclear bargain concluded by the USA, France, Great Britain, Germany, Russia, China and Iran
The country which is under the American sanctions which indirectly beat also other external players tolerates huge economic damage. The whole projects in oil and gas branch, in the field of infrastructure, telecommunications and automotive industry are frozen. The Supreme leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran (IRI) Ali Khamenei has threatened to resume development of nuclear weapon if agreement "6 1" breaks because of an exit from him the United States.
Under the terms of the contract on the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Actions (JCPA) signed in 2015 by the USA, Russia, China, Britain, France, Germany and Iran, Tehran refuses development of nuclear weapon, and the international community step by step removes from him sanctions. Since then Iran has transferred the nuclear objects under control of IAEA according to which reports Iranians meet terms of transaction.
Khamenei doesn't understand how IRI can at the same time "be under sanctions, refuse the nuclear program and at the same time adhere to restrictions", imposed by JCPOA. The ayatollah has already given the order of the Organization for atomic energy of Iran (OAEI) to take immediate measures for renewal of process of uranium enrichment to 190 thousand ERR (unit of work on division of isotopes — one of indicators of power of centrifuges — an editor's note).
Though other parties of JCPOA have declared commitment to the nuclear transaction, the decision of the American president Donald Trump to leave her has put multi-billion investments of corporations from the European Union under risk. Washington has threatened to authorize not only the American, but also any other companies investing in Iran and buying the Iranian oil. On pain of the American penalties the French petrogiant Total S.A. has already frozen participation in the gas field "South Pars 11". An exit from two venture projects on car sale was declared also by other French multinational corporation today — PSA Peugeot Citroën. Under risk there are investments of Daimler, ENI, BASF, Siemens and Airbus.
The spiritual leader of Iran worries that, despite commitment to the contract from Russia, China and three EU countries, Iran won't be able to receive the economic benefits promised him. Earlier Khamenei has laid down a condition to the countries of the European Union which have to compensate the material damage caused by an exit of the USA from JCPOA.
"Our enemies will never be able to stop our nuclear progress... It is our nightmare and it never happens" — Khamenei in a televised address has told.
The "most powerful sanctions" promised by Trump are expected in two stages — in August and November. The administration in the White House has laid down a number of conditions to conclude the new nuclear bargain. First, Iran has to stop development of ballistic missiles. Secondly, as the Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has said last month, Tehran needs to cease to support Shiite groups in Iraq, Yemen, Syria and also Talibs in Afghanistan. And thirdly, Iran has to stop uranium enrichment.
For the USA it is extremely important to draw Europeans who don't respond to similar appeals yet on the party now. In Iran they can lose billions of euros. The minister of oil of Iran Bizhan Zanganeh has given Total of 60 days on that being defined, otherwise South Pars will be given to Chinese. While Trump speaks with Europe language of ultimatums and threats and has even entered tariffs for steel import and aluminum from the EU, the prime minister of Israel Benjamin Netanyahu has gone to the Old World with special diplomatic mission. Israel, by and large, is also the main responsible for the anti-Iranian hysteria which has overflowed world politics.
At negotiations with German Chancellor Angela Merkel Netanyahu it was succeeded to get support of Berlin on some questions. "The Iranian regional presence causes concern" — Merkel who has demanded from Tehran to leave completely Syria has said. The Israeli prime minister has warned her that Iran in Syria has on hand militia in 18 thousand people and I intend to bring her number to 80 thousand.
The German chancellor has also condemned anti-Israel tweets of the government of Iran. Earlier Ali Khamenei called Israel "cancer tumor" of the Middle East which should "be removed and eradicated". However on the main issue — the nuclear transaction — everyone has agreed to differ. Merkel still considers JCPOA in the best way for keeping of Iran from development of nuclear weapon.
If there are no changes, then in August Iran expects the first package of sanctions, and then and the second — in November. An economic situation in IRI not the most favorable what speeches of long-distance truck drivers, farmers and teachers in the middle of May testify to. Petrol prices and food and also taxes on businessmen and consumers grow. The Iranian rial has depreciated for 25% in the first weeks after Trump's decision of May 8.
On a wave of the worsening financial situation the criticism of the government which has agreed to normalization of the relations with the West in 2015 grows. On this background of a voice of critics of JCPOA from among conservative clericals will be heard more loudly. Disappointed with indecision of the EU and other parties save the nuclear transaction Iranians can break off the agreement unilaterally. Or to make the steps doing JCPOA of insignificant. Khamenei's order on uranium enrichment — the first alarm signal.
Similar provocative actions of IRI can become the basis for Europe to cave in under Washington what Iran will answer in Kim Jong-un's style — new tests of ballistic missiles and development of nuclear weapon, ignoring everyone and everything. Freezing of developments of the Iranian oil and gas fields and other projects, possible renewal of the oil embargo of the EU together with escalation between Iran and Israel will urge on prices of oil. That is why the predicted Bank of America and Total jump from current 75 up to 100 dollars for barrel don't seem something outstanding. To oil monarchy of the Persian Gulf, producers of expensive American LNG and, of course, Russia is to what to rejoice.